TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama’s quarterback situation played out exactly like my preseason prediction said it would, but other position groups provided some unexpected results. Alabama’s 2023 season, with a 12-1 record, an SEC championship and a College Football Playoff berth, was preceded by uncertainty in the months leading up to the opening kickoff. That allowed room for some oddly specific predictions about each position and what they would mean for the season.
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The season’s not over, but each prediction has been settled. Alabama’s first official practice for the Rose Bowl is Saturday, which means there’s still time to look back and see which preseason predictions panned out and what the biggest surprises were.
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Predictions for each Alabama position group in 2023
Quarterbacks
Prediction: “The starter will be solidified after the first month of the season, and barring injury, he will keep the job through 2023, and that will be Jalen Milroe.”
Result: Spot on.
The early-season roller coaster ride at quarterback smoothed out after Week 4 when Milroe led a second-half comeback against Ole Miss in which he completed 6 of 7 passes for 132 yards and a touchdown. Starting with that game, Milroe completed 66.5 percent of his passes and had a 16-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio while adding 10 rushing touchdowns and leading Alabama to 10 straight wins.
Milroe’s play earned him several awards at the team’s end-of-season banquet, including most inspiring player, offensive player of the year and team MVP (voted on by players). Milroe had some Heisman Trophy buzz down the stretch and finished sixth in the final voting. There’s no question he’ll be near the top of the favorites lists entering the 2024 season.
Running backs
Prediction: “Look for the top four running backs (Jase McClellan, Roydell Williams, Jamarion Miller and Justice Haynes) each having at least 55 carries — something that’s only happened once in the last 10 seasons: 2018.”
Result: Off the mark.
Alabama’s rushing offense eventually rounded into form, finishing third in the SEC at 172.7 yards per game. At the bye week, that number was at 147.1 yards per game, which would’ve been a Nick Saban-era low. The preseason hype around the running backs’ depth didn’t come to fruition, as the team relied on McClellan (166 carries) and Williams (110 carries). Milroe took a large share of carries either by design or scramble (140 carries). Miller has 40 carries, and Haynes has 21.
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That’s no indictment on Miller, who has found a regular playing role, or Haynes, who has flashed when given the chance this year. The early, unexpected struggles on offense, particularly with the offensive line, limited the rotation to the reliable veterans. Miller and Haynes will be the main fixtures in the future, but a big role for both was a year too early. As for Richard Young, there was a mini-prediction that he would play in four games and redshirt. He appeared in three games: Middle Tennessee State, Kentucky and Chattanooga.
Jermaine Burton leads Alabama this season with 777 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)Wide receivers
Prediction: “Alabama won’t have a 1,000-yard receiver in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2016-17 … but that might not necessarily be a bad thing.”
Result: Alabama didn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver, and it worked out fine.
This season marked the first time in Saban’s tenure that Alabama didn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver, but the skill players provided big moments when needed. Milroe’s 261 attempts are the third-lowest mark by a starter under Saban, behind Tua Tagovailoa in 2019 (injury-shortened season) and Jalen Hurts in 2017 (255), but Milroe’s passes were potent. Alabama’s top four pass catchers by yards (Jermaine Burton, Isaiah Bond, Amari Niblack and Kobe Prentice) are averaging at least 14 yards per catch.
Burton leads the way with 777 yards (22 yards per catch) and eight touchdowns, and Bond has 621 yards and four touchdowns.
Tight ends
Prediction: “Alabama legitimately has four playable tight ends (CJ Dippre, Robbie Ouzts, Niblack and Danny Lewis Jr.), and all four will earn at least one start this season.”
Result: On the money.
The biggest surprise on offense is just how much the tight ends were involved. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees employs two-tight-end sets more than 40 percent of the time (previous coordinator Bill O’Brien used that grouping less than 10 percent of the time).
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Dippre leads the way with 11 starts, Ouzts has six and Niblack has four. Lewis started in the season opener against Middle Tennessee, which makes this prediction 100 percent correct. All four players have eligibility for next season, and more talent is on the way via the 2024 recruiting class. This is set to be a position of strength for years to come.
Offensive linemen
Prediction: “I’m bullish on this group overall, which is why four offensive linemen will receive some postseason awards.”
Result: Three out of four.
Much like the entire offense, it took the line most of the season to come into its own. When it did, most recently in the SEC Championship Game, you see why this group had such high expectations. Looking at the postseason accolades, there’s plenty of recognition to go around.
JC Latham, a projected first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, leads the way with All-America honors (Associated Press, Football Writers Association of America, Walter Camp) and All-SEC honors. Sophomore guard Tyler Booker, a surefire 2024 All-America candidate, joined Latham on the All-SEC team as a second-team pick. True freshman Kadyn Proctor was named to the All-SEC Freshman team after starting all season at left tackle.
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Defensive linemen
Prediction: “Part 1 of the defensive line predictions: Justin Eboigbe posts career highs in every category in his final season. Part 2: Jaheim Oatis earns All-SEC distinction for the second consecutive season.”
Result: Half right.
Eboigbe was one of the best stories on this year’s team, recovering from a serious neck injury in 2022 to becoming an impact player in 2023. His final season at Alabama finished with first-team All-SEC honors with career highs in tackles (60), tackles for loss (11 1/2) and sacks (seven). There’s no question that he played his way into legitimate draft consideration.
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An injury slowed Oatis during the second half of the season, but he posted similar numbers in 2023 to 2022 with 25 tackles, one tackle for loss and two pass deflections. A healthy Oatis in 2024 is a huge returning piece to this defensive line.
Linebackers
Prediction: “(Deontae) Lawson will lead the team in tackles and receive an All-SEC distinction of some type. … (Outside linebacker) is led by a pair of veterans in Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell, who will each record at least 10 tackles for loss and eight sacks. I expect Turner to return to his 2021 form, exceed that point and challenge for SEC defensive player of the year.”
Result: A year early for Lawson, but perfect timing on Turner and Braswell.
Lawson missed three games with an ankle injury and was limited in a few others, but he’s fourth on the team with 61 tackles and didn’t receive any All-SEC distinctions. He flashed the potential shown at the end of the 2022 season throughout this year, and when he was healthy, he proved he’s a force in the middle of the defense. He’s draft-eligible, but a return in 2024 would set him up to be a premier name at inside linebacker.
Turner, the SEC defensive player of the year, and Braswell formed one of the best outside linebacker duos in the country. Both have double-digit tackles for loss (Turner with 13 1/2 and Braswell with 10 1/2) and at least eight sacks (Turner with nine and Braswell with eight). There’s a good chance both could be first-round draft picks in the spring.
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Defensive backs
Prediction: “Due to the improved play at cornerback and presumably in the entire secondary, it’s going to be tougher for teams to avoid Kool-Aid McKinstry, which is why I’m predicting that McKinstry will have his first-ever multi-interception season. And because he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands, he will have at least one pick-six.”
Result: Hello, Terrion Arnold.
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McKinstry is an All-American (Walter Camp) and a first-team All-SEC selection but did so without intercepting a pass. The Alabama secondary more than proved its mettle this season with several players making key contributions, but teams oftentimes avoided McKinstry in passing situations. That opened the door for Arnold, perhaps the biggest breakout player on the team, to lead the way with five interceptions. Freshman safety Caleb Downs, the SEC freshman of the year, is second with two interceptions and leads the team in tackles (99).
Specialists
Prediction: “(Will) Reichard will convert at least 87 percent of his field goals, which will move him into the top five all-time in SEC history in field goal percentage. And James Burnip will rank in the top five in the SEC in punt average (he was seventh last season at 42.3).”
Result: Bull’s-eye.
What would Alabama’s season have been without the strong kicker-punter duo of Reichard and Burnip? Both were All-SEC selections (Reichard was an All-American and a Lou Groza Award finalist) and catalysts to the team’s success.
Reichard (20-for-23) has converted exactly 87 percent of his kicks this season, and that number has elevated him to No. 3 all-time in SEC history in field goal percentage at 83.7 percent. Burnip is third in yards per punt (47.16), including a career-long 67-yard punt.
(Top photo of Jalen Milroe: Jeffrey Vest / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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